Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 11.2.26 — Burnin’ today: Election Eve, Donalds & Jolly, Schale, Crist & Welch, Moody & Nixon, Uthmeier, Basabe & the Teamsters

Your morning espresso shot of Florida politics ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

From: Extensive Media Enterprises Good Monday morning. Breaking late Sunday afternoon — “Florida State fires Mike Norvell one day after Clemson loss” via Matt Baker of The Athletic — Florida State fired football coach Norvell Sunday following a 36-24 home loss to Clemson that dropped the Seminoles to 3-5. The dismissal ends a turbulent 41-39 tenure and triggers an approximately $50 million buyout, the third largest in college football history. Offensive analyst Rick Stockstill will serve as interim coach while FSU conducts a national search. Norvell led the Seminoles to a 13-0 regular season in 2023 before a stunning collapse, including a 2-10 campaign in 2024 and a 5-7 finish in 2025. President Richard McCullough acknowledged fans’ expectations. The firing comes amid major stadium investments, financial pressures, and uncertainty over FSU’s future conference affiliation. Mike Norvell exits Florida State after a turbulent tenure. Image via AP. ___ Here are some of the columns and stories I am reading the day before the election. 🔥 — A record for attention. Gallup finds 56% of U.S. adults have given "quite a lot" of thought to the election — the highest reading so far in a Midterm. The prior highs were 2018, 2010, and 1994, and each produced large seat swings. Fifty-six percent of registered voters are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, second only to 2018. Democrats lead on enthusiasm (58% to 48%) and on plans to vote early (54% to 38%). Among adults 65 and older, 73% have thought a lot about the election; among those under 30, 32%. Read Jeffrey Jones at Gallup. 🗳️ — Nobody deserves re-election. Gallup's final pre-Midterm poll puts support for re-electing one's own House member at 43%, the first time it has fallen under half in readings dating to 1994. Fifteen percent would re-elect most of Congress. Congressional approval is 14%, the lowest pre-Midterm mark since 1974. Republicans are more likely to keep their own members (51%) than Democrats (45%) or independents (36%). In all nine Midterms with congressional approval under 30%, the President's party lost House seats, and the size of the loss tracked the size of the majority it held going in. Read Megan Brenan's analysis at Gallup. 📊 — 2006 and 2018, side by side. Bruce Mehlman compares 2026 with the last two Midterms under a Republican President. Like 2006, it has an unpopular war (69% say Iran was not worth it) and a President at 38% approval. Gas is up 41% from a year ago. Consumer confidence is 91.7, against 105.4 in 2006 and 137.9 in 2018. The House battlefield: 42 competitive GOP seats, against 55 and 75. The Democratic Party is 11 points underwater on net favorability (+14 in 2006, -8 in 2018), and only two Democratic Senate seats are up in states the President carried, down from 10 in 2018. Democrats need three House seats and four Senate seats. See the full chart in Bruce Mehlman's Six-Chart Sunday. 🦄 — Cook on the unicorn election. Charlie Cook writes that this year's decisive voters are typically reliable rural Republicans, not independents or suburban swing voters, and that they are angry over the Iran attack, tariffs, and immigration enforcement. President Donald Trump's approval among Republicans is about 80%, down from 86% in January, and Cook calls it unenthusiastic. Those voters could vote Republican, stay home, leave races blank, or defect, and pollsters can't tell which. Cook's post-election questions are whether the Democratic House majority reaches 235 seats and whether Democrats get a five-seat Senate majority that doesn't depend on John Fetterman. He warns Democrats off the generic ballot because the deciding districts are redder than the country, and calls the result less a blue wave than a red undertow. Read Charlie Cook's column. 🎯 — 52 Democratic Senate seats, if the polls hold. Patrick Ruffini lined up polling averages, four models, and two prediction markets for the Senate battlegrounds. Democrats lead every average and every model in nine races, which, with 34 seats not up and nine safe seats, gets them to 52. The path runs through two states the President carried by 10 or more, most likely Alaska and Texas. A Midwest polling miss like 2016 would hit Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas, the states that decide control. His early-vote tracker shows a much bluer electorate than in 2024, in line with 2018. Florida is the last row: Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon by about six points in every average, and Kalshi and Polymarket price her at 90%. Read Patrick Ruffini at The Intersection. ⚖️ — Which way the polls could be wrong. G. Elliott Morris charted every source of polling error he tested this cycle. Pointing to polls that flatter Democrats: too few of the President's rural voters, discouraged Republicans skipping surveys, undecideds coming home, and low-effort respondents who lean Republican. Pointing the other way: voters who no longer admit backing the President in 2024, party weights frozen at 2024 levels, and undecideds breaking against the party in power. Most of the effects are a point or less. The typical final miss in Senate averages is about three points. Polls underestimated Republicans in 2016, 2020, and 2024 and Democrats in 2022, Virginia, and New Jersey. Morris offers no prediction on direction. See the chart at Strength In Numbers. ⏰ — Florida closes first. Bruce Mehlman sorted Tuesday's House and Senate races by poll-closing time into four outcomes: red riptide, blue tide (Democrats win 218 to 229 House seats), blue wave (230 to 239), and blue tsunami (240 or more). Florida's 7 p.m. close makes it the first test. House: Kathy Castor, Jared Moskowitz, and the open seat in Florida's 22nd Congressional District are a tide; Darren Soto and the open CD 7 seat are a wave; Republicans sweeping the four redrawn seats is a riptide. Senate: Moody by 10 or more is a riptide, four to nine a tide, three or less a wave. Also on his list: the Senate race uncalled at 9 p.m. is a good Democratic night; the Governor's race uncalled at 10 p.m. is a very good one. See both charts in Bruce Mehlman's Six-Chart Sunday. ___ Democratic strategist Steve Schale says Republicans ended early voting with an edge of about 130,000 ballots, just under 3 points, among the nearly 5.4 million who have voted. In a Sunday Substack post, the Democratic strategist wrote that Democratic turnout is approaching 49%, Republican turnout is 38%, and NPA voters make up 22% of the electorate so far. Florida voters head toward Election Day with turnout numbers keeping both parties guessing. For two years, Schale has said a Democrat can win statewide only if Democratic turnout exceeds Republican turnout, NPA voters favor Democrats by about 20 points, and more Republicans vote Democratic than the reverse. He writes that the first condition is in place and the NPA pool "looks" more Democratic based on where those voters are casting ballots. Whether Republicans cross over will be known only after Tuesday. Republicans still have about 700,000 more voters who cast ballots in 2020, 2022, and 2024. They won Election Day turnout by about 600,000 in 2022. Schale expects the final Republican edge to exceed 7.5 points. Most polls estimate 12 to 14. Pollster Tom Eldon has said R+9 for a year. Schale will not predict a result. "It is very much a race," he concludes. ___ St. Pete Polls has former Gov. Charlie Crist ahead of incumbent Ken Welch 55% to 35% in the final survey of the St. Petersburg Mayor’s race, and most of the city has already voted. Six in 10 likely voters say they have cast a ballot. Crist leads them 59% to 38%. Among the four in 10 still planning to vote, Crist leads 49% to 29%, with 22% undecided. Charlie Crist holds a commanding polling lead over Ken Welch in St. Petersburg’s Mayoral contest. Asked whom they support, 54% pick Crist and 34% pick Welch, with 12% undecided. Add in leaners and Crist rises to 55%, Welch to 35%, and the undecided pool shrinks to 10%. Give Welch every undecided voter, and he finishes at 45%. This is the fourth St. Pete Polls survey since the Primary, and Crist has held a majority in all four: 52% in September, 53% on debate day, 54% last week, and 55% now. Welch has gone 27%, 32%, 34%, and 35%. Both men are Democrats. Crist leads among Democrats 49% to 45%, Republicans 62% to 22%, and independents 58% to 31%. Black voters, who gave Welch a 55% to 16% lead in March, go to Crist 46% to 43%. Crist wins every age group and leads men 58% to 32% and women 53% to 37%. ___ The ads are cut. The slots are bought. The mail is in the box. All that’s left is to celebrate, win or lose, the hard-fought battles that brought us to one of the most consequential Election Days of our generation. That means we need to hear from you. Where will you watch the results roll in on Election Night? Who will be joining you? Are you welcoming the public, or celebrating in private with friends and family? Send your info to Peter@FloridaPolitics.com, and best of luck to everyone!

Situational awareness   —@Ry_Bass: Nate Silver, who runs one of the more accurate prediction models in the game, has Florida turning blue and electing its first Democratic Governor since 1994. Tweet, tweet: —@EWarren: @AngieNixon won her Florida Primary while being outspent 16 to 1. She didn’t soften her message or chase corporate donors. She won by fighting for working people. Now let’s finish the job. Florida, vote early and send Angie to the Senate. —@TeamsterSOB: Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien here. Just voted in the State of Florida for the first time, and very proud to have cast a ballot for @SenAshleyMoody. Sen. Moody has been extremely helpful working with the Teamsters to protect workers’ pensions, defend good-paying jobs, and support well-funded union apprenticeship programs. The Teamsters look forward to working with Sen. Moody in her role on the Senate HELP Committee to pass the Faster Labor Contracts Act and get this critical legislation signed into law to protect American workers. Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet: —@FLLymeDisease: Steps from @UF campus, two were killed in a shooting this morning. Gainesville’s violent crime rate is more than double the FBI average and rising in H1 2026. GPD sworn officer count is also WAY below the FDLE average. @AGJamesUthmeier, we need state intervention. Tweet, tweet:

TO SEEMORE SUNBURN CLICK HERE

2 de noviembre Cápsula de oración

http://dlvr.it/TW8Ql6

November 2 Prayer Pod

Philippians 4:6 Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God. – NIV

 We all want to pray but sometimes we find it difficult to begin our prayer.  Many Pastors and Ministers suggest you begin your prayer by praying back God’s words from Scripture.

These daily prayer PODs are constructed to help you in your prayer life.

November 2 
Pray: Our Father in heaven, hallowed be Your name, Your kingdom come, Your will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Lord hear Your words: 2 Thessalonians 3:13 But as for you, brethren, do not grow weary in doing a good thing.

Lord hear my request: (Say your needs, wants, fears, thanksgivings) - In Jesus name I pray – Amen.

READ THE NEW TESTAMENT IN A YEAR….
Today’s Reading for November 2  Hebrews 12:14-29

To learn more about accepting Jesus Christ as your Lord and Savior click here: SALVATION CONNECTION

 

  

 

PLEASE SHARE TO YOUR FAVORITE SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORM  

Takeaways from Tallahassee — Return to sender

 From: Extensive Media Enterprises

Florida politics: property taxes, insurance relief, investigations and campus news.

Amendment 3 was made in Tallahassee. Tallahassee would like to return it.

Leon County’s opposition coalition stretches across nearly every corner of local civic life. Sheriff Walt McNeil, Reps. Allison Tant and Gallop Franklin, Superintendent Rocky Hanna, County and City Commissioners, School Board members, Bethel Missionary Baptist Church and the Big Bend chapter of the AFL-CIO are all telling voters to reject the proposed property-tax overhaul.

That is not unanimous opposition from every county officeholder. It is, however, an unusually broad show of local resistance that crosses the customary political lines.

Tallahassee City Commissioner Jack Porter delivered the coalition’s clearest explanation of what is at stake.

“Amendment 3 is not just a tax-shift; it’s the ultimate power grab by the state to control cities by stripping them and their residents of control over our budgets and our futures,” Porter said. “If you care about local voices making local choices, vote no on 3.”

The numbers supply the blunt-force version. The Florida Policy Institute estimates local governments and special districts serving Leon County could lose $158.8 million during the amendment’s first two years. That includes approximately $112.5 million from county operations, more than $30 million from Tallahassee and over $4 million from the local Children’s Services Council.

Return receipt requested.

Leon County Commissioner David O’Keefe said the county could eventually face more than $70 million in annual cuts, leaving it just $3.5 million after paying mandated costs to fund everything else.

Franklin supplied the release’s most memorable line.

“Real, transformative relief cannot be microwaved on short notice,” he said, noting that lawmakers moved the proposal from concept to a vote in less than three days.

Franklin supports property-tax relief. He wants the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission, which convenes next year, to develop it through something resembling a normal policymaking process.

Local pushback arrives as support for Amendment 3 inside the Capitol grows increasingly squishy. Senate President Ben Albritton, who voted to place it on the ballot, now plans to vote no. Former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo is opposed. Gov. Ron DeSantis remains nominally supportive — lukewarm, if not tap-cold — but does not intend to campaign for it.

Leon officials may be preaching to the choir. A recent St. Pete Polls survey found just 44% support for Amendment 3, while voters who had already cast ballots opposed it 45% to 40%. That is a deep hole for a measure requiring 60% approval.

The Legislature served Amendment 3. Leon County’s leaders are sending it back to the kitchen.

___

Coming up, the usual assortment of news, intel, and observations from the week that was in Florida’s capital city by Peter Schorsch, Drew Wilson, Drew Dixon, Liam Fineout and the staff of Florida Politics.

But first, the “Takeaway 5” — the Top 5 stories from the week that was:

— Take 5 —

State event, campaign pitch — DeSantis continues to evangelize for property tax relief on the November ballot, using what was billed as an official state of Florida event to stump for a political item. Joined by U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, the term-limited DeSantis argued in St. Petersburg that the proposed homestead exemption increase in Amendment 3 would benefit homeowners and that local governments could afford it. DeSantis held a similar roundtable event in South Florida, blurring the line between policy and politics as the 2026 General Election nears. His arguments would be familiar to anyone who has heard him speak on the amendment in recent months. He again said the amendment doesn’t shift taxes from property owners to other mechanisms, saying that local governments should fund core services (“the things we all agree on”) rather than “whatever social cause” a local government may want.

Federal help for the Panhandle — President Donald Trump has approved a major disaster declaration for the Panhandle following Hurricane Isaias, a designation Moody had been pushing for. Isaias made landfall near Destin as a Category 2 hurricane, and thousands were evacuated as it approached. Moody said she was thrilled by the declaration. She led an effort by members of Florida’s congressional delegation to urge Trump to approve DeSantis’ request. “This declaration is so important to Floridians and communities still suffering from the impact of Hurricane Isaias,” Moody said. “While the state is working diligently to restore areas destroyed by this major hurricane, Trump’s approval of the Major Disaster Declaration will help bolster ongoing efforts in Florida’s Panhandle.”

The FEC goes dark — The Federal Election Commission (FEC) has confirmed technical issues are affecting campaign finance report filings days before the 2026 Midterms. Reuters first reported that the agency’s website was hacked, disrupting the public reporting of spending by campaigns and super PACs. The FEC has confirmed its electronic filing system went offline, and work to restore full access is ongoing. “Work continues to resolve the electronic filing system outage. FEC.gov’s other campaign finance data searches remain available as do PDFs of reports,” reads a post on the FEC’s official X account. The FEC is posting updates on a status page. The most recent update reads: “The issue has been identified and a fix is being implemented.”

Rate relief lands — Florida homeowners are in line for lower property insurance rates. CFO Blaise Ingoglia and Insurance Commissioner Mike Yaworsky highlighted a batch of rate decreases that took effect this month. The reductions affect more than 824,000 homeowners, who could see decreases of up to 12.1% on new policies or renewals. “I am thrilled to highlight more rate decreases for Florida homeowners, with the most recent large batch all being effective for new customers or renewals this October,” Yaworsky said in a news release.

Remembering Allison DeFoor — Allison DeFoor, President and CEO of the North Florida Land Trust (NFLT) and a leading figure in Florida’s conservation movement, has died of complications from pneumonia. He served with the organization for eight years. DeFoor helped broker multiple agreements among corporations, private landowners, government agencies and environmental groups that set aside hundreds of thousands of acres of protected land. Sarah Hande, the NFLT’s Director of Strategic Communications, said the loss is hard for an organization that often reflected his personal passion for the environment. “It’s hard to quantify the loss that we feel,” Hande said. DeFoor was also an Episcopal priest. Before leading the land trust, he had an extensive legal career as a prosecutor, public defender, judge and law professor. He also was elected Monroe County Sheriff. He resigned to run for Lieutenant Governor on the Republican ticket supporting Gov. Bob Martinez in his unsuccessful 1990 re-election bid.

— Water fund splash —

Drip, splash.

On Wednesday in Crystal River, DeSantis awarded $100 million across 45 projects to restore and protect Florida’s water resources through the Springs Restoration and Alternative Water Supply grant programs.

These programs and projects will help protect and restore Florida’s iconic springs, expand alternative water sources, and promote water conservation.

“Today in Crystal River, I was proud to announce $100 million for springs restoration and alternative water supply projects throughout Florida. These strategic investments will build on the progress we’ve made in protecting our natural resources and improving water quality in communities across Florida, so that we can leave this state to God better than we found it,” DeSantis said.

The state will award $50 million to 23 projects to restore Florida’s beautiful springs through wastewater upgrades that will collectively reduce total nitrogen by more than 55,000 pounds per year.

TO SEE  MORE TAKAWAYS FROM TALLAHASSEE CLICK HERE

Can You Give Me 4 Minutes to Answer this Question About Jesus?

Who is Jesus? The Light in the Darkness

Hello this is Pastor Chris.

Salvation Connection is here to walk with you as you make the most important decision of your life—inviting Jesus Christ into your heart as Lord and Savior. These messages are meant to lovingly guide you through the questions and uncertainties that many people have about Him.

Jesus once said, “I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will not walk in darkness, but will have the light of life.”

We know what darkness feels like. It’s confusion when we don’t know which way to go. It’s guilt that won’t let go. It’s fear that creeps in when life feels out of control. Sin is like a darkness that covers us—it blinds, it isolates, and it keeps us stumbling.

But into that darkness, Jesus came. He didn’t bring a flashlight—He came as the Light itself. His presence exposes sin, but it also shines hope. He shows us the truth of who we are, but also the grace of who we can be in Him. In Him, there is forgiveness. In Him, there is clarity and purpose. In Him, there is life.

Why did He have to die? Because sin is the deepest darkness, and the only way to break it was through His sacrifice. On the cross, He bore our sin and endured the darkness we deserved, so that His light could shine into our lives. When He rose again, the darkness was shattered forever.

You don’t have to keep living in confusion, fear, or guilt. You can step into His light today. That’s why He came—to open your eyes, to set you free, and to lead you into life.

SINNER’S PRAYER
If you’ve never trusted Christ, pray from your heart:

Dear Lord, 

I am a sinner, and I need a Savior.  

I am sorry for my sins, and I repent. 

I believe You died on the Cross for my sins and rose again.

I ask you to come into my heart right now and be my Lord and Savior. 

I know from this point moving forward I will have eternal life in you. 

Please order my steps and help me to live in such a way that brings honor and glory to Your Name)

Thank you, Jesus, for your gift of salvation. 

If you prayed that prayer and believe it in your heart, God’s Word says you are saved—not because of what you’ve done, but because of who Jesus is and what He has done for you.

The prayer does not save you; it is your faith now being placed in Jesus Christ as your Savior and what he did on the Cross that saves you.

God's love and his grace is being freely given to you and know that you are a new creation.

Second Corinthians 5:17 tells us that the old is gone and all things are new.

So don't walk in your old ways, begin a new walk in the ways of Christ.

Find a good bible and begin to read God’s Word, start praying and be sensitive to how the Holy Spirit speaks to you.

Join a local church that teaches the inerrant word of God and use the gifts and talents he has given you for his glory and the benefit of others.

I pray that your walk with our Lord and Savior may be full, and you especially enjoy His moments in your life.

May God bless you

If you accepted Jesus Christ as your lord and Savior, please send us an e-mail at prayerpods@aol.com

1 de noviembre Cápsula de oración

CLICK HERE  http://dlvr.it/TW7nPP