Electric Vehicles Sales Surging - What are the Short-Term and Long-Term Effects

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Opinion by:  
E. Eugene Webb PhD
Author: In Search of Robin  

Even as late as November and December of 2021 most analysts were predicting modest sales gains for electrically powered vehicles in the United States and North America.

Since then, those projections have changed substantially as domestic and foreign automakers drastically ramp up their ability to produce affordable electric cars and trucks.

From Market Place by: Samantha Fields Feb 3, 2022 Sales of electric vehicles doubled in 2021. “More than 6.5 million electric cars were sold around the world in 2021. That’s more than double the number sold in 2020 and more than triple what sold in 2019, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.”

From AXIOS Ben Geman, author of Generate: Analysts: Electric vehicle sales slated for 2022 surge

With gas prices rising rapidly in the United States, and the aggressive marketing push from Ford and other US automakers and automotive distributors the interest in electrically powered vehicles is certainly on the rise.

Petroleum industry estimates for the impact of electric vehicles on gasoline sales have long expected the real surge in electric vehicle purchases to occur much later in the 2030 to 2035 range.

It would appear, that the gasoline refining and retailing industry is going to need to do some significant reviewing of their sales and marketing forecasts.

All of this presents an interesting conundrum for the Biden administration. With gasoline prices soaring along with general inflation, there is pressure on the federal government to do something to bring gasoline prices down. However, those very high gasoline prices are a significant part of what is stoking the growing interest in electric vehicles.

The sudden increase in interest in electric vehicles for the American driving public fits nicely with the Biden administration’s approach to management of climate change.

For now, I would expect the Biden administration to let gasoline prices fluctuate based on global petroleum demand and allow the American public to make significant investments in electric vehicles.

It will take several years for the significant global impact of electrically powered vehicles on the petroleum industry to become fully apparent. However, as the global demand for refined petroleum products decreases, there will be an economic shift among crude oil-producing nations.

The geopolitical impact of these worldwide economic changes will probably not play out completely during the Biden administration unless President Biden is re-elected to a second term.

The effects of the growing adoption of electrically powered vehicles will have both a short-term and a long-term impact on the political power structure of the entire planet.

We can expect growing political unrest in the petroleum producing countries of the world as their economic structure and revenue to support political aggression begin to decrease.

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