Trump and Diplomacy Part 4

 
Diplomacy, Private Power Blocs, Corporate Alliances, Decentralized, Tech-Driven Diplomacy and Faith…

By E. Eugene Webb PhD

PART 4 of 7

The conversation continues.

CHATGPT said: Would you like an example of when "win-win" diplomacy failed?

I answered: Yes

ChatGPT said:

Example of "Win-Win" Diplomacy Failing: The Munich Agreement (1938)

The Munich Agreement between Britain, France, Italy, and Nazi Germany is one of history’s most famous cases where a "win-win" diplomatic approach failed disastrously.

The Setup

• Hitler demanded Sudetenland, a German-speaking region of Czechoslovakia.

• Britain and France, seeking to avoid war, pursued appeasement, believing a diplomatic compromise could satisfy Germany and prevent conflict.

• In September 1938, they negotiated a deal without Czechoslovakia present, giving Hitler what he wanted in exchange for his promise of peace.

Why It Was Considered "Win-Win" at the Time

• Germany won: It got Sudetenland without war.

• Britain & France won: They believed they avoided another world war.

• Hitler "promised" peace: So it seemed like stability was maintained.

Why It Failed

1. Appeasement Empowered Aggression – Hitler saw it as weakness and invaded the rest of Czechoslovakia in 1939.

2. Britain & France Lost Credibility – Their allies (like Poland) realized diplomacy wouldn't protect them.

3. No Real Enforcement – The agreement relied on Hitler’s word rather than tangible consequences.

4. The Alternative (War) Was Delayed, Not Prevented – Less than a year later, Germany invaded Poland, starting World War II.

Key Lesson

• A deal isn’t truly "win-win" if one side views it as a steppingstone to greater advantage.

• Diplomacy only works when both sides see long-term value in honoring the agreement not just using it to buy time for their next move.

I Asked: It does not seem there is much honor among nation states these days. The old men do too much talking and the young men look for leverage, the rules of geopolitical honor are antiquated. Can true diplomacy work in this environment?

ChatGPT said:

That’s a sharp observation—geopolitical honor today often seems like an outdated concept, overshadowed by realpolitik, power struggles, and shifting alliances. However, true diplomacy can still work, but only when it adapts to modern realities.

1. The Shift from Honor to Interests

• In the past, diplomacy was guided by codes of conduct, trust, and alliances based on shared values.

• Today, diplomacy is transactional—nations act based on strategic self-interest, not principles.

• Example: The U.S. and China are economic rivals but still engage diplomatically because trade benefits both.

2. Diplomacy in an Era of Leverage & Manipulation

• Nations now use economic power, cyber influence, and military posturing instead of formal treaties to get what they want.

• Example: Russia and Saudi Arabia adjust oil production to manipulate global markets, shaping diplomatic leverage.

• Lesson: Diplomacy still happens, but it’s driven by pragmatism, not honor.

3. Can Diplomacy Work Without Trust?

• Absolute trust isn’t required, but credible enforcement mechanisms are.

• Diplomacy thrives when there are costs for breaking agreements (sanctions, trade consequences, military deterrence).

• Example: The Iran Nuclear Deal (2015) worked temporarily because monitoring & penalties were built into it.

• Failure Example: Russia’s violation of the Budapest Memorandum (Ukraine, 2014) showed the weakness of unenforced diplomatic agreements.

4. Is Diplomacy Just a Tool for Buying Time?

• Many leaders use diplomacy as a stalling tactic while preparing for other actions.

• Example: North Korea engages in nuclear talks but continues weapons development behind the scenes.

• Lesson: Effective diplomacy today requires verification and leverage, not just words.

5. What is “True Diplomacy” in Today’s World?

Diplomacy today isn’t dead—it’s just evolved. True diplomacy now means:

• Strategic Negotiation – Making deals that factor in distrust & leverage.

• Enforceable Agreements – No deal should rely on "honor" alone—consequences must be built in.

• Realpolitik over Ideals – Nations engage because it serves their interests, not because they "should."

Final Thought

Honor among nations may be outdated, but diplomacy isn’t dead—it’s just become harder, more calculated, and more ruthless. True diplomacy still works when it aligns with power, verification, and long-term self-interest rather than outdated notions of trust.